Experience teaches that the most dangerous moment for a bad government is usually when it begins to reform itself.

This remark is commonly attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville in connection with his analysis of the French Revolution and the collapse of the Ancien Régime. Writing in the mid-19th century, Tocqueville argued that revolutions often erupt not at the height of oppression but when an entrenched, unpopular regime begins to loosen controls or introduce reforms. Such reforms can raise expectations, expose the regime’s weaknesses, and mobilize groups that had previously been resigned or fearful. The line is frequently cited in discussions of political liberalization and “opening” moments—when partial reforms destabilize authoritarian systems by undermining old legitimacies without yet establishing new, trusted institutions.

The quote suggests a paradox of political change: a “bad” government may survive through rigid repression and predictable rules, but becomes most vulnerable when it attempts reform. Reform signals that the regime recognizes problems and can no longer govern as before; it also encourages citizens to believe further change is possible and to demand more than the government is willing or able to grant. In Tocqueville’s framework, incremental concessions can accelerate dissatisfaction by widening the gap between rising hopes and stubborn realities. The insight is less a condemnation of reform than a warning that reform without credible transformation, legitimacy, or institutional capacity can trigger crisis.