The nuclear arms race is like two sworn enemies standing waist deep in gasoline, one with three matches, the other with five.

Sagan’s metaphor captures the Cold War logic of nuclear deterrence as a shared, escalating peril rather than a stable balance. Two adversaries are already immersed in a highly flammable environment (a world primed for catastrophe); the only remaining “advantage” is a marginal difference in the number of matches—an image for warheads, delivery systems, or first‑strike capability. The comparison implies that superiority is illusory: either side can ignite disaster, and the competition to accumulate more “matches” increases the chance of accidental or impulsive ignition. The quote underscores Sagan’s broader public argument that nuclear strategy often confuses technical dominance with genuine security.