To say that we are closer to victory today is to believe, in the face of the evidence, the optimists who have been wrong in the past. To suggest that we are on the edge of defeat is to yield to unreasonable pessimism. To say that we are mired in stalemate seems the only realistic, yet unsatisfactory, conclusion.

Cronkite frames three competing narratives about a war’s trajectory—imminent victory, impending defeat, or stalemate—and rejects the first two as products of wishful thinking rather than evidence. The passage underscores a journalist’s duty to resist both official optimism and reflexive despair, settling instead on a sober assessment that may be politically and emotionally unsatisfying. Its rhetorical balance (optimists “wrong in the past” versus “unreasonable pessimism”) highlights how public understanding can be distorted by repeated misjudgments and mood swings. The conclusion—“stalemate”—suggests a conflict in which costs mount without decisive progress, implicitly challenging policymakers to reconcile rhetoric with realities on the ground.